Governance & Policy

Unintended Consequences

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Definition

Unintended consequences are the outcomes of purposeful action that were not intended or foreseen — beneficial, neutral or perverse. The concept, systematised by sociologist Robert Merton (1936), arises from bounded knowledge, values shaping attention, immediacy of interest, and self-defeating predictions. Sustainability policy is rich in cases: first-generation biofuel mandates driving deforestation, diesel promotion raising urban air pollution, plastic bag bans multiplying bin liner sales, and the archetypal "cobra effect" of bounties breeding the pest.

References

www.jstor.orgBulk import source

Source imported for editorial provenance.

www.oecd.orgBulk import source

This reference provides supporting context for how “Unintended Consequences” is defined and used.

Overview

How it is used

The concept structures policy evaluation, ex-ante impact assessment, precaution in standard-setting, and post-hoc reviews of interventions.

Why it matters

Every sustainability intervention acts on a system that answers back; unintended consequences is the name for what it says.