Climate and ecological limits
Overshoot
Definition
Overshoot has two established sustainability usages. In ecological footprint accounting, overshoot is the state in which humanity's demand on nature exceeds the biosphere's regenerative capacity, marked annually by Earth Overshoot Day. In climate policy, an overshoot pathway is one in which global warming temporarily exceeds a target such as 1.5 °C before returning below it, relying on net negative emissions later in the century.
References
ecological usage and annual accounting
climate overshoot pathway definition and implications
Overview
What it means
Ecological overshoot means liquidating natural capital — drawing down stocks and accumulating waste such as CO₂ faster than systems regenerate. Climate overshoot matters because every increment and duration of exceedance raises impacts and risks, including irreversible ones, and depends on large-scale carbon removal later.
How it is used
The footprint usage appears in Global Footprint Network accounts and communications; the climate usage is central to IPCC assessment of 1. 5 °C pathways and to debates on the credibility of delayed-action scenarios.
Why it matters
Both usages capture the same structural problem — living beyond regenerative means and deferring the reckoning — making overshoot a unifying concept for planetary limits and intergenerational responsibility. **Note:** Serves as the merge target for ID 1969 (Overshoot pathway).