Climate science
Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP)
Definition
The Global Temperature change Potential is an emission metric that measures the global mean surface temperature change at a chosen future point in time from a pulse emission of a given gas, relative to the temperature change from an equal mass of carbon dioxide. Where the Global Warming Potential integrates heat absorbed over a period, the GTP evaluates the temperature outcome at the end of that period, requiring modelling of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake.
References
metric definition and contrast with GWP
Overview
What it means
GWP answers "how much energy does this gas trap?" ; GTP answers "how much warming does it cause by year X?" Because it links emissions directly to temperature, GTP is conceptually suited to temperature-target policies, but its greater model dependence has kept GWP-100 as the standard for reporting. For short-lived gases such as methane, GTP and GWP give markedly different weights.
How it is used
Climate scientists compare metrics when analysing mitigation pathways and multi-gas policies; GTP appears in IPCC assessment reports and in debates over how to treat short-lived climate pollutants.
Why it matters
The choice of metric changes the apparent importance of methane and other short-lived gases — and therefore the shape of mitigation strategy.