Climate & Environment
Tipping Element
Definition
Tipping elements are subsystems of the Earth system that can undergo qualitative, often irreversible state changes when a critical threshold in a control variable (usually temperature) is passed. Identified by Lenton and colleagues (2008) and refined since, they include the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the AMOC, the Amazon rainforest, permafrost, boreal forests and warm-water coral reefs. Recent assessments find several already at risk in the 1–2 °C warming range, with possible cascading interactions between them.
References
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This reference provides supporting context for how “Tipping Element” is defined and used.
Overview
How it is used
The concept structures IPCC risk assessment, the Global Tipping Points Report, planetary boundaries analysis and the scientific case for rapid mitigation.
Why it matters
Tipping elements are the points where climate change stops being a dial and becomes a switch — the risk that dominates all others.