Climate & Environment
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)
Definition
The Stated Policies Scenario is the baseline scenario of the IEA's World Energy Outlook, projecting the evolution of the energy system under policies and measures that governments have actually adopted — not merely announced. It deliberately distinguishes enacted policy from aspirational pledges (modelled separately in the Announced Pledges Scenario), providing a conservative trajectory against which the gap to climate goals can be measured. In recent editions, STEPS projections have shown fossil fuel demand peaking this decade while still falling far short of net zero.
References
This reference provides supporting context for how “Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)” is defined and used.
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Overview
How it is used
The scenario structures energy market analysis, policy gap assessments, investment benchmarking and media framing of "current trajectory" warming estimates.
Why it matters
STEPS is the energy world's mirror — the difference between what governments enact and what they promise, quantified.